Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-19

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-09) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-09 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-09)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-09) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	340 (306 – 373)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	22 (13 – 85)
Algeria	195 (167 – 220)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	70 (18 – -37)
Argentina	322 (287 – 359)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (8 – 20)
Armenia	184 (158 – 210)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (10 – 130)
Australia	24 (10 – 37)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.7)	20 (4.7 – -8.5)
Austria	56 (40 – 70)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	20 (7.5 – -33)
Azerbaijan	122 (96 – 141)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (9.3 – -240)
Bahrain	285 (254 – 313)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	50 (18 – -71)
Bangladesh	1233 (1063 – 1396)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (10 – 17)
Belarus	1079 (940 – 1210)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	28 (18 – 74)
Belgium	364 (308 – 415)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-41 (110 – -17)
Benin	27 (11 – 38)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	24 (5.6 – -10)
Bolivia	227 (197 – 255)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (11 – 80)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	33 (18 – 47)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	120 (8 – -8.8)
Brazil	12979 (11316 – 14560)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	15 (12 – 19)
Bulgaria	48 (30 – 67)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	490 (9.4 – -9.7)
Cameroon	140 (113 – 162)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	9 (6 – 19)
Canada	1321 (1160 – 1481)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	390 (35 – -41)
Central African Republic	37 (19 – 52)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.9)	6.4 (3.5 – 34)
Chad	36 (20 – 50)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	27 (6.3 – -12)
Chile	2478 (2163 – 2814)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (8.9 – 13)
China	11 (3 – 16)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.9)	10 (3.3 – -9.6)
Colombia	732 (619 – 819)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (11 – 24)
Cote dIvoire	62 (44 – 82)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	27 (8.5 – -23)
Croatia	19 (3 – 37)	Unsure	1.2 (0.5 – 1.9)	49 (3.5 – -4.3)
Cuba	22 (9 – 33)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	24 (5.1 – -9)
Czechia	59 (37 – 78)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	34 (8.4 – -16)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	74 (54 – 90)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	21 (8.4 – -49)
Denmark	82 (64 – 101)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-18 (100 – -8.3)
Djibouti	35 (21 – 48)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.7)	8.9 (4.5 – -1100)
Dominican Republic	337 (276 – 388)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	83 (21 – -43)
Ecuador	643 (525 – 764)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	16 (7.9 – -320)
Egypt	480 (403 – 558)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (15 – 500)
El Salvador	61 (44 – 77)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-440 (13 – -13)
Equatorial Guinea	34 (18 – 48)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.9 – 1.8)	9.5 (4.2 – -31)
Estonia	14 (2 – 25)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.7 – 2.3)	7 (2.5 – -8.5)
Finland	68 (50 – 86)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-22 (33 – -8.1)
France	496 (438 – 546)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.9)	-7.5 (-12 – -5.5)
Gabon	106 (83 – 125)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	11 (6.6 – 34)
Germany	759 (683 – 839)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-35 (-300 – -19)
Ghana	214 (181 – 248)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-19 (-150 – -10)
Greece	24 (9 – 37)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.7)	11 (4.1 – -15)
Guatemala	135 (111 – 155)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	9.3 (6 – 20)
Guinea	94 (74 – 114)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	22 (9.1 – -50)
Guinea Bissau	43 (30 – 56)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-34 (17 – -8.4)
Haiti	51 (32 – 64)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.9)	6 (3.7 – 15)
Honduras	109 (83 – 133)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	-75 (20 – -13)
Hungary	44 (28 – 62)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	28 (7.2 – -14)
Iceland	219120 (0 – 559)	Likely increasing	446.2 (0 – 10.4)	-0.0039 (0.46 – -1.6)
India	4846 (4204 – 5538)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 23)
Indonesia	578 (492 – 659)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (11 – 26)
Iran	2039 (1756 – 2275)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (13 – 25)
Iraq	100 (82 – 119)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	19 (8.8 – -160)
Ireland	182 (151 – 209)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-89 (30 – -18)
Israel	23 (12 – 31)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.5 – 1)	-13 (28 – -5.2)
Italy	1000 (901 – 1108)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-47 (300 – -22)
Japan	75 (58 – 92)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-20 (62 – -8.8)
Kazakhstan	212 (178 – 243)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	22 (11 – -2600)
Kosovo	17 (6 – 28)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.9)	7.5 (3.1 – -20)
Kuwait	1029 (890 – 1186)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (8.2 – 13)
Kyrgyzstan	36 (21 – 48)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	19 (6.2 – -17)
Latvia	18 (5 – 27)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.9 – 2)	7.6 (3.1 – -17)
Lebanon	16 (5 – 26)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.5)	-340 (6.1 – -5.5)
Lithuania	18 (5 – 29)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	10 (3.6 – -12)
Luxembourg	15 (5 – 25)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 1.9)	11 (3.3 – -8.8)
Malaysia	39 (23 – 53)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-21 (20 – -6.8)
Maldives	46 (28 – 63)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	1500 (10 – -10)
Mexico	2348 (2066 – 2673)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (13 – 24)
Moldova	170 (145 – 193)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	19 (10 – 120)
Mongolia	31 (12 – 50)	Increasing	2.1 (1.3 – 2.8)	3.2 (2 – 8.1)
Morocco	111 (87 – 130)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-16 (-92 – -8.5)
Nepal	31 (16 – 44)	Likely increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.8)	8 (3.9 – -210)
Netherlands	223 (189 – 257)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-27 (250 – -13)
New Zealand	1583 (0 – 207)	Likely increasing	7 (0.2 – 5.9)	-0.0014 (0.89 – -4.2)
Niger	17 (6 – 27)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.6)	18 (4.4 – -8.5)
Nigeria	240 (210 – 270)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-84 (38 – -20)
North Macedonia	28 (15 – 41)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	19 (5.7 – -13)
Norway	29 (14 – 41)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-18 (17 – -5.6)
Oman	274 (231 – 300)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (7.3 – 20)
Pakistan	1833 (1603 – 2071)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	28 (18 – 62)
Palestine	10 (0 – 20)	Unsure	1.7 (0.3 – 3.1)	4.1 (1.5 – -5.2)
Panama	172 (145 – 194)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-270 (26 – -21)
Paraguay	19 (7 – 31)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1)	-7 (-1100 – -3.5)
Peru	4181 (3621 – 4758)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (13 – 31)
Philippines	267 (224 – 304)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	34 (15 – -95)
Poland	393 (337 – 439)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (16 – 330)
Portugal	245 (199 – 285)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-31 (58 – -12)
Puerto Rico	72 (50 – 89)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	32 (9.1 – -21)
Qatar	1654 (1432 – 1869)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (11 – 17)
Romania	246 (208 – 287)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-37 (69 – -14)
Russia	11462 (10341 – 12668)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	54 (32 – 180)
Saudi Arabia	2607 (2235 – 2972)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 19)
Senegal	109 (80 – 132)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	30 (11 – -36)
Serbia	86 (64 – 108)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	220 (13 – -15)
Singapore	776 (680 – 875)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	51 (23 – -240)
Slovakia	15 (1 – 26)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.6 – 2.3)	7.4 (2.5 – -7.3)
Somalia	59 (41 – 74)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	29 (8.6 – -22)
South Africa	921 (777 – 1075)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	9.8 (8 – 13)
South Korea	26 (15 – 35)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	16 (5.5 – -19)
Spain	787 (695 – 872)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 0.9)	-24 (-74 – -14)
Sri Lanka	24 (9 – 35)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	20 (5 – -9.7)
Sudan	139 (117 – 163)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	33 (13 – -54)
Sweden	619 (533 – 693)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	48 (21 – -150)
Switzerland	47 (31 – 60)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-49 (16 – -9.6)
Thailand	11 (0 – 22)	Unsure	1.4 (0.4 – 2.3)	8.4 (2.3 – -5)
Tunisia	101 (0 – 35)	Unsure	2.9 (0.2 – 3.7)	2 (1.3 – -4.5)
Turkey	1763 (1569 – 1992)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	130 (32 – -56)
Ukraine	508 (429 – 574)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	48 (20 – -110)
United Arab Emirates	837 (734 – 942)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	16 (12 – 25)
United Kingdom	3961 (3480 – 4366)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-63 (130 – -25)
United Republic of Tanzania	11 (3 – 18)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.3 – 1.1)	-7.1 (33 – -3.2)
United States of America	25581 (23143 – 28737)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	62 (30 – -940)
Uruguay	27 (21 – 33)	Increasing	1.8 (1.4 – 2.4)	5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan	54 (32 – 72)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	38 (8.3 – -14)
Zambia	72 (54 – 88)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	9.5 (5.3 – 46)