Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-19

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-09) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-09 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-09)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-09) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 340 (306 – 373) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 22 (13 – 85)
Algeria 195 (167 – 220) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 70 (18 – -37)
Argentina 322 (287 – 359) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (8 – 20)
Armenia 184 (158 – 210) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (10 – 130)
Australia 24 (10 – 37) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 20 (4.7 – -8.5)
Austria 56 (40 – 70) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 20 (7.5 – -33)
Azerbaijan 122 (96 – 141) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (9.3 – -240)
Bahrain 285 (254 – 313) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 50 (18 – -71)
Bangladesh 1233 (1063 – 1396) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (10 – 17)
Belarus 1079 (940 – 1210) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (18 – 74)
Belgium 364 (308 – 415) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -41 (110 – -17)
Benin 27 (11 – 38) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 24 (5.6 – -10)
Bolivia 227 (197 – 255) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (11 – 80)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 33 (18 – 47) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 120 (8 – -8.8)
Brazil 12979 (11316 – 14560) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 19)
Bulgaria 48 (30 – 67) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 490 (9.4 – -9.7)
Cameroon 140 (113 – 162) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9 (6 – 19)
Canada 1321 (1160 – 1481) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 390 (35 – -41)
Central African Republic 37 (19 – 52) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 6.4 (3.5 – 34)
Chad 36 (20 – 50) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 27 (6.3 – -12)
Chile 2478 (2163 – 2814) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8.9 – 13)
China 11 (3 – 16) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) 10 (3.3 – -9.6)
Colombia 732 (619 – 819) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 24)
Cote dIvoire 62 (44 – 82) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 27 (8.5 – -23)
Croatia 19 (3 – 37) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.9) 49 (3.5 – -4.3)
Cuba 22 (9 – 33) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 24 (5.1 – -9)
Czechia 59 (37 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 34 (8.4 – -16)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 74 (54 – 90) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 21 (8.4 – -49)
Denmark 82 (64 – 101) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -18 (100 – -8.3)
Djibouti 35 (21 – 48) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 8.9 (4.5 – -1100)
Dominican Republic 337 (276 – 388) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 83 (21 – -43)
Ecuador 643 (525 – 764) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 16 (7.9 – -320)
Egypt 480 (403 – 558) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (15 – 500)
El Salvador 61 (44 – 77) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -440 (13 – -13)
Equatorial Guinea 34 (18 – 48) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) 9.5 (4.2 – -31)
Estonia 14 (2 – 25) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 7 (2.5 – -8.5)
Finland 68 (50 – 86) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -22 (33 – -8.1)
France 496 (438 – 546) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -7.5 (-12 – -5.5)
Gabon 106 (83 – 125) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 11 (6.6 – 34)
Germany 759 (683 – 839) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -35 (-300 – -19)
Ghana 214 (181 – 248) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -19 (-150 – -10)
Greece 24 (9 – 37) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 11 (4.1 – -15)
Guatemala 135 (111 – 155) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9.3 (6 – 20)
Guinea 94 (74 – 114) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 22 (9.1 – -50)
Guinea Bissau 43 (30 – 56) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -34 (17 – -8.4)
Haiti 51 (32 – 64) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.9) 6 (3.7 – 15)
Honduras 109 (83 – 133) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -75 (20 – -13)
Hungary 44 (28 – 62) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 28 (7.2 – -14)
Iceland 219120 (0 – 559) Likely increasing 446.2 (0 – 10.4) -0.0039 (0.46 – -1.6)
India 4846 (4204 – 5538) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 23)
Indonesia 578 (492 – 659) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 26)
Iran 2039 (1756 – 2275) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (13 – 25)
Iraq 100 (82 – 119) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 19 (8.8 – -160)
Ireland 182 (151 – 209) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -89 (30 – -18)
Israel 23 (12 – 31) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 1) -13 (28 – -5.2)
Italy 1000 (901 – 1108) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -47 (300 – -22)
Japan 75 (58 – 92) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -20 (62 – -8.8)
Kazakhstan 212 (178 – 243) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 22 (11 – -2600)
Kosovo 17 (6 – 28) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) 7.5 (3.1 – -20)
Kuwait 1029 (890 – 1186) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8.2 – 13)
Kyrgyzstan 36 (21 – 48) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 19 (6.2 – -17)
Latvia 18 (5 – 27) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 2) 7.6 (3.1 – -17)
Lebanon 16 (5 – 26) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) -340 (6.1 – -5.5)
Lithuania 18 (5 – 29) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 10 (3.6 – -12)
Luxembourg 15 (5 – 25) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 11 (3.3 – -8.8)
Malaysia 39 (23 – 53) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -21 (20 – -6.8)
Maldives 46 (28 – 63) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 1500 (10 – -10)
Mexico 2348 (2066 – 2673) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (13 – 24)
Moldova 170 (145 – 193) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 19 (10 – 120)
Mongolia 31 (12 – 50) Increasing 2.1 (1.3 – 2.8) 3.2 (2 – 8.1)
Morocco 111 (87 – 130) Decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -16 (-92 – -8.5)
Nepal 31 (16 – 44) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 8 (3.9 – -210)
Netherlands 223 (189 – 257) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -27 (250 – -13)
New Zealand 1583 (0 – 207) Likely increasing 7 (0.2 – 5.9) -0.0014 (0.89 – -4.2)
Niger 17 (6 – 27) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 18 (4.4 – -8.5)
Nigeria 240 (210 – 270) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -84 (38 – -20)
North Macedonia 28 (15 – 41) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 19 (5.7 – -13)
Norway 29 (14 – 41) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -18 (17 – -5.6)
Oman 274 (231 – 300) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.3 – 20)
Pakistan 1833 (1603 – 2071) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 28 (18 – 62)
Palestine 10 (0 – 20) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 3.1) 4.1 (1.5 – -5.2)
Panama 172 (145 – 194) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -270 (26 – -21)
Paraguay 19 (7 – 31) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -7 (-1100 – -3.5)
Peru 4181 (3621 – 4758) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (13 – 31)
Philippines 267 (224 – 304) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 34 (15 – -95)
Poland 393 (337 – 439) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (16 – 330)
Portugal 245 (199 – 285) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -31 (58 – -12)
Puerto Rico 72 (50 – 89) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 32 (9.1 – -21)
Qatar 1654 (1432 – 1869) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (11 – 17)
Romania 246 (208 – 287) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -37 (69 – -14)
Russia 11462 (10341 – 12668) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 54 (32 – 180)
Saudi Arabia 2607 (2235 – 2972) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 19)
Senegal 109 (80 – 132) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 30 (11 – -36)
Serbia 86 (64 – 108) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 220 (13 – -15)
Singapore 776 (680 – 875) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 51 (23 – -240)
Slovakia 15 (1 – 26) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.3) 7.4 (2.5 – -7.3)
Somalia 59 (41 – 74) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 29 (8.6 – -22)
South Africa 921 (777 – 1075) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.8 (8 – 13)
South Korea 26 (15 – 35) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 16 (5.5 – -19)
Spain 787 (695 – 872) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -24 (-74 – -14)
Sri Lanka 24 (9 – 35) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 20 (5 – -9.7)
Sudan 139 (117 – 163) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 33 (13 – -54)
Sweden 619 (533 – 693) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 48 (21 – -150)
Switzerland 47 (31 – 60) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -49 (16 – -9.6)
Thailand 11 (0 – 22) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 8.4 (2.3 – -5)
Tunisia 101 (0 – 35) Unsure 2.9 (0.2 – 3.7) 2 (1.3 – -4.5)
Turkey 1763 (1569 – 1992) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 130 (32 – -56)
Ukraine 508 (429 – 574) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 48 (20 – -110)
United Arab Emirates 837 (734 – 942) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 16 (12 – 25)
United Kingdom 3961 (3480 – 4366) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -63 (130 – -25)
United Republic of Tanzania 11 (3 – 18) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1.1) -7.1 (33 – -3.2)
United States of America 25581 (23143 – 28737) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 62 (30 – -940)
Uruguay 27 (21 – 33) Increasing 1.8 (1.4 – 2.4) 5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan 54 (32 – 72) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 38 (8.3 – -14)
Zambia 72 (54 – 88) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 9.5 (5.3 – 46)